ON THE METHODOLOGY FOR OPTIMIZING THE ECONOMIC EFFECT OF APPLYING NEW TECHNOLOGY

(USING BETATRONS AS AN EXAMPLE)

P. S. MOROZ

(Presented by the scientific seminar of the Department of Economics)

Behind the term “new technology” various concepts are in fact concealed; however, in all terms it is implied that this is economically advantageous technology. The term “fundamentally new technology” is understood to mean technology that should lead to very significant shifts in the economic results of its application. However, an entire series of tasks must be solved in order to obtain these economic results. At such stages of the scientific-and-technical complex as applied theoretical research, scientific-and-technical developments that enter into the scientific-and-technical preindustrial complex, and at the stage of introducing the results of the complex’s work into industry, i.e., economic realization, where the main line of contact between science and production takes place, a whole series of separate technical-and-economic tasks is solved, each of which contributes to obtaining and increasing the economic effect from the application of this new technology.

Fundamentally new technology contains considerable possibilities, the use of which leads to leap-like shifts—significant, multiple—in the development of production [8]. Long intervals of time from the emergence of an idea to its economic use, and an insufficiently comprehensive approach to the question of applying this new idea, to a significant degree postpone in time and reduce the overall economic effect.

Researchers and designers at various stages solve partial tasks, and from their point of view these seem important. Above all, they proceed from the expenditures on research, which in most cases are limited, and from the effect that these studies may produce. A strategic direction in the planning and management of scientific developments can increase and accelerate the obtaining of the overall economic effect from the realization of a fundamentally new idea. Such an approach is analyzed on the basis of the development of electron accelerators—betatrons—and their application in radiation defectoscopy.

In the development of electron accelerators—betatrons—the following characteristic stages may be distinguished.

At the first stage, the task was to create operable accelerators, the task of realizing the idea of obtaining bremsstrahlung radiation with the aid of betatrons. When this task had been solved and a whole series of betatrons appeared, the task arose of applying bremsstrahlung radiation, in particular in radiation defectoscopy. From this moment, applied research practically begins.

On the one hand, research is being conducted to improve betatrons [2]; on the other, the possibilities of bremsstrahlung radiation of various parameters (energy and exposure-dose rate) are being investigated for detecting internal defects in acceptable thickness ranges of various materials [3]. These studies made it possible to move on to optimizing inspection methods with allowance for production conditions [14]. Questions are being considered concerning the effectiveness of using betatrons for radiographic inspection of materials of great thickness [5]. In these works, the problems solved were mainly those of using already existing types of accelerators, created in order to cover a certain range of thicknesses.

The large body of theoretical and practical material accumulated by that time on the use of accelerators in defectoscopy, the theory that had been developed, and the existing experience in producing accelerators of various types over a wide and overlapping range of energies and exposure-dose rates made it possible to develop a method for selecting the parameters of a bremsstrahlung beam [6, 7]. Testing the method for the Barnaul Boiler Plant showed that, solely by objectively selecting the betatron parameters with allowance for production conditions, a positive economic effect can be obtained.

At the Barnaul Boiler Plant, radiographic inspection is carried out of welded joints of thick-walled vessels with thicknesses of 100–160 mm. The average annual program is 300 m² (250 m² with a thickness of 100 mm and 50 m² with a thickness of 160 mm). A betatron is installed at the plant with a maximum energy \(E_m = 25\) MeV and an exposure-dose rate \(P_x = 40\) R/min. At a focal distance \(F = 2\) m, the average annual number of hours of use of the betatron laboratory is 320. Optimization by the criterion of minimum reduced costs, under the specified production constraints, according to the method of [6, 7], showed that at \(E_m = 25\) MeV, \(P_x = 6\) R/min, \(F_1 = 3.2\) m, \(F_2 = 1.5\) m, \(T_2 = 1873\) h, the average specific reduced costs for inspection are \(Z_{\mathrm{pr}} = 19\) rubles/m². Calculations carried out by the same method under actual conditions showed that \(Z_{\mathrm{pr}} = 29\) rubles/m²; consequently, the annual economic effect is 3000 rubles.

Techno-economic optimization of radiometric inspection systems [8] showed that the choice of accelerator parameters must be made jointly with the choice of the parameters of the radiation receiver; i.e., there exists an optimal relationship between the parameters of the source and the parameters of the radiation receiver for each thickness of the material being inspected, inspection speed, and method sensitivity.

In works [6, 8], the reduced costs of inspection were minimized, where the method was based on the weight characteristics of betatrons obtained for one type of design and with such parameters as the supply frequency, injection voltage, etc., constant over the entire range of energies and exposure-dose rates. There are also other design solutions—for example, iron-free betatrons. This indicates that the weight characteristics obtained in [9] are not optimal; that is, the problem of obtaining optimal characteristics can be posed. The difficulty lies in choosing the optimization criterion. If the minimum weight of the betatron is taken as the criterion, its cost may be significant. If the minimum cost is taken as the criterion, operating expenses may turn out to be high owing to inefficiency (large power consumption). The optimization criterion should be the reduced costs, taking into account the cost of the accelerator and operating expenses. Minimization of the cost of the accelerator can be carried out

only if the parameters affecting operating costs have been fixed.

When solving optimization problems in defectoscopy, one has to specify the sensitivity of the method. In most cases it is assumed that the sensitivity is specified on the basis of production considerations, or reference is made to GOST standards. But since betatrons are a new technology with entirely new capabilities, the optimal standards for detecting defects, from the point of view of the integral quality index of the product, may deviate significantly from GOST standards.

The path to maximizing the economic effect from the use of betatrons, which proceeds through the solution of separate partial technical-and-economic problems, may be called iterative. Under this method, the partial problems are solved sequentially, i.e., the occurrence of the next one is determined by the solution of the preceding one. As a result of solving the problems separately, errors arise because local optima are not coordinated with global ones. When problems are solved sequentially, the front of research narrows and the total research time increases.

Another approach to maximizing the economic effect of new technology is possible: from applied research through to the economic realization of its results. The current state of methods of mathematical modeling, the capabilities of computer technology, and mathematical methods for solving problems make it possible to implement another approach. It may be called integral, since it is proposed to solve the problem comprehensively, considering, as far as possible, the entire system into which the new technology introduces changes. It is distinguished by a strategic orientation toward the accelerated achievement of the ultimate economic effect from the use of the new technology.

The scheme for formulating the problem of optimizing the economic effect, using the application of betatrons in defectoscopy as an example, is presented below.

flowchart TB
    A["Emergence of the idea and its technical implementation"]

    A --> B["Development of the technical-and-economic model of the installation"]
    A --> C["Investigation and modeling of the properties of bremsstrahlung radiation for defectoscopy purposes"]
    A --> D["Analysis of production conditions"]
    A --> E["Investigation of target output"]

    B --> F["Modeling of reduced costs for product inspection"]
    C --> F
    D --> F

    F --> G["Optimization by the comprehensive quality criterion"]
    E --> G

In the scheme, four main stages of development can be distinguished: from the emergence of the idea to obtaining the full economic effect.

First stage. The emergence of the idea and of the possibility of creating fundamentally new technology and its physical implementation, confirming the reality of the idea. These studies are fundamental.

Second stage. The beginning of applied studies, which in one way or another are connected or will be connected with the application of the new technology. Here the directions of applied research and specific tasks are formed. In our case, four directions are formed. The task in developing a techno-economic model and optimizing characteristics may be formulated as follows: to develop a mathematical model, a series of mathematical models that take into account various betatron designs, engineering solutions, and also to develop an algorithm and programs that make it possible, with the aid of a computer, for given maximum energy and exposure-dose rate, restrictions on weight, dimensions, power consumption, etc., to determine such independent parameters (for example, supply frequency, injection voltage), such a betatron design, for which the cost of the basic materials or the cost price of the betatron is minimal. It is desirable that at this stage the plan of experimental studies be directed primarily toward obtaining such models, and not toward the final development, let us suppose, of a production prototype of the machine.

In studying and modeling the properties of bremsstrahlung radiation, it is necessary to obtain the relationship between such parameters as the parameters of the bremsstrahlung beam, the parameters of the radiation receiver, the thickness of the material being inspected, the type of material, the magnitude of the defects detected, etc.

Analysis of possible production situations should provide restrictions on the choice of certain parameters, for example, energy, dimensions of the source, and focal distance.

The question of studying the influence of various kinds and magnitudes of defects on product quality is of independent importance.

The solution of the first three tasks is the basis for modeling, studying, and optimizing the reduced costs of inspection, taking into account specific production conditions.

The optimal value of sensitivity and, consequently, the standard for detecting defects can be determined from a joint analysis of the reduced costs of inspection and the target return, which depends on sensitivity, according to the maximum of an integral quality criterion [7, 10].

Thus, optimization of the economic effect from the application of betatrons can be carried out by assembling a number of models, and the development of some of them may proceed in parallel, which accelerates the entire process of introducing the technology.

It appears possible that such an integrated approach to the assimilation of other new technology may prove effective.

REFERENCES

1. A. I. Kats. Dynamic Economic Optimum. “Ekonomika,” 1970.

2. L. M. Anan’ev, A. A. Vorob’ev, V. I. Gorbunov. Induction Electron Accelerator—Betatron. Moscow, Atomizdat, 1961.

3. A. V. Vorob’ev, V. I. Gorbunov, V. A. Vorob’ev, G. V. Titov. Betatron Defectoscopy of Materials and Products. Moscow, Atomizdat, 1965.

4. I. A. Abramovich et al. Welding Production, 1970, no. 7, p. 36.

5. V. A. Berdonosov et al. Defectoscopy, 1969, no. 2, p. 137.

6. V. I. Gorbunov et al. Defectoscopy, 1971, no. 3, p. 117.

7. P. S. Moroz, A. V. Pokrovskii. Criterion and method for selecting the type and parameters of electron accelerators in defectoscopy. Proceedings of TPI. Tomsk, 1972, p. 269.

8. P. S. Moroz. Techno-economic optimization of radiometric inspection systems using electron accelerators. Proceedings of TPI. Tomsk, 1973.

9. V. P. Belyaev, A. A. Vorob’ev et al. Proceedings of Higher Educational Institutions. Electromechanics, 1971, no. 1, pp. 38–43.

10. A. V. Glichev. Standards and Quality, 1968, p. 8.